Across the Southwest, at least 7,805 migrants have died between 1998 and 2019, according to U.S. Border Patrol data. Since 1990, over 3,600 deaths have occurred in the Arizona desert borderlands of Pima County where Carrillo works. In 2021, the number of annual deaths in the region reached a new high: 225. About a third of those deaths were caused by exposure to environmental extremes—like heat. This year may very well break 2021's record. Already, 126 bodies have been found.

The border crisis is bad now, but climate change will make it exponentially worse.

      While researchers have been investigating the way climate change will influence migration patterns for years, they have largely ignored the way climate change will affect the migration journeys themselves. Temperatures in the southwestern desert can already occasionally soar past 125 degrees Fahrenheit in peak summer months. By 2050, climate models project the state's temperatures will leave much of the desert region uninhabitable.


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